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Workshop 2. Bridging the divide between models and decision-making: The role of uncertainty in the uptake of forecasts by decision makers

Hal Batchelder (PICES Secretariat)
Kai M.A. Chan (Canada)
Edward J. Gregr (Canada)
Shin-ichi Ito (Japan)
Vladimir Kulik (Russia)
Naesun Park (Korea)
Ian Perry (Canada)
Jameal Samhouri (USA)
Motomitsu Takahashi (Japan)

Invited Speakers:
Georgina A. Gibson (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Lee Failing (Compass Resource Management Ltd., Canada)

Uncertainty is a key theme of the FUTURE program. Scientific uncertainty extends beyond the outputs of oceanographic or ecosystem models and has significant consequences on human dimensions ranging from public and stakeholder perception to tactical and strategic decision making by managers and policy makers. The workshop will consider uncertainty along the entire path from data, through model design and implementation to communication and uptake of results by decision makers. Such end-to-end consideration of uncertainty is critical to improve the uptake of oceanographic model results by stakeholders and decision makers in all PICES member countries, particularly as the modeling community moves towards end-to-end models, and faces the challenges of managing multiple stressors. This workshop will thus bridge two central themes of the FUTURE Open Science Meeting: quantification and measurement of uncertainty in observations and projects, and communication and engagement in the development and dissemination of FUTURE products.

The workshop will be centered on two themes. The first of them concerns input data, model structure, and parameterization, and will focus on how sources of uncertainty can be articulated and presented on a technical level. This theme challenges the modeling community to explain the credibility of their results, articulate their assumptions, and generally expose sources of uncertainty. Models of any topic including stock assessment, ecosystem dynamics, and cumulative effects are welcome.

The second theme will consider decision analysis and decision making, including psychological insights into how people perceive, understand, and incorporate complex information into decision-making. Discussions will focus on: (1) how FUTURE can best articulate uncertainty assessments, and develop a communication strategy to broaden the engagement of the public, communities, decision makers and other stakeholders in the results emerging from FUTURE; and (2) how FUTURE products can link to coastal communities, with an emphasis on how and to what degree these products are relevant to the communities whose decisions they presume to affect. This includes the fundamental challenge of how to scale FUTURE scientific outputs with impacts on human dimensions, generally considered at more local extents. This theme in particular will consider approaches to communicate the value of FUTURE products beyond the natural science community. Potential topics of additional discussion include outreach to other disciplines (e.g., psychologists and anthropologists) with the intent of developing more insightful and applicable inter-disciplinary outputs and strategies for presenting FUTURE products to the broader, international stakeholder community.

From this workshop, we plan a primary publication outlining how FUTURE products can be effectively communicated to the intended audiences.

Edward J. Gregr and Kai M.A. Chan
Uncertainty from observations to decision-making: What we know, what we assume, and what matters (9341) [pdf, 1 Mb]
Georgina A. Gibson (Invited)
Ecosystem modeling predictions – How reliable are they? (9346) [pdf, 2 Mb]
William T. Peterson
Modelers: Know thy fish (9403) [pdf, 1 Mb]
Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Uncertainty of fish growth projection caused by uncertainty of physical forcing (9401) [pdf, 2 Mb]
Rowenna Gryba and Edward J. Gregr
Evaluation of predictive habitat suitability: Using contemporary sightings and prey data to assess model assumptions (9335) [pdf, 1 Mb]
Kai M.A. Chan and Edward J. Gregr
The problem isn't uncertainty, but its monotypic treatment (9342) [pdf, 1 Mb]
Lee Failing (Invited)
How decision science can improve the relevance of oceanographic research to managers and stakeholders (9377) [pdf, 3 Mb]
  • Symposium Scope
  • Symposium Structure
  • Scientific Program
  • Venue
  • Organizers
  • Schedule
  • Plenary and Invited Speakers
  • Registration
    Registration Summary
  • Abstract Submission
    Submitted Abstracts
  • Publication
    Book of Abstracts
  • Financial Support
  • Transportation
  • Visa
  • Accommodation
  • Floor Plan
  • Social Events
  • Contact
  • NEWS
    Important Dates
  • January 13 , 2014
    bstract submission deadline

    Financial support application deadline
    Early registration deadline
  • February 7 , 2014
    Abstract acceptance notification

    Financial support grant notification
  • April 14-18 , 2014
    Symposium and associated workshops
  • October 1 , 2014
    Manuscript submission deadline
    mportant Dates
    Past Deadlines
    May 13 , 2013
  • Deadline for submissions of workshop proposals
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