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Session 5. Mechanisms of change: Processes behind climate variability in the North Pacific

Emanuele Di Lorenzo (USA)
Michael Foreman (Canada)
Shoshiro Minobe (Japan)

Plenary Speaker:
Mat Collins (University of Exeter, UK)

Invited Speakers:
Taka Ito (Georgia Institute of Technology , USA)
Nathan J. Mantua (Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA-Fisheries, USA)

In recent years, much progress has been made in our understanding of the large-scale physical dynamics of Pacific climate variability and change. New modes of ocean and atmospheric variability over the Pacific have been recognized and shown to influence ecosystem processes. The impact that these modes have on marine biophysical interactions in upwelling systems has also become a research focus under a new collaboration between CLIVAR and IMBER, to which PICES is contributing. Diagnosing the mechanisms underlying the statistical correlations between the physical forcing and the ecosystem response strongly relies on our ability to model and synthesize the processes controlling the variability in the climate system, and unveiling the dominant set of physical controls on marine ecosystem dynamics. This synthesis activity is a core component of FUTURE and involves developing low-order (e.g., low number of dimensions) process-models of the climate system, which reduce the complex processes to their most basic and dominant mechanics. Process-models such as these can be used statistically to provide uncertainty estimates of decadal variability in recent historical climate and ecosystem time series, and to provide improved metrics to test the mechanisms of climate variability and change in IPCC models.

This session invites contributions that combine model and observational methods to provide syntheses of the mechanisms controlling North Pacific climate variability, and that show how these improved syntheses enable better diagnosing and predicting of the dynamics of Pacific climate and of the marine ecosystem responses to climate forcing. We also welcome contributions that explore new mechanisms of physical-biological linkages that can only be partially tested with currently available observations, yet provide the theoretical foundation to understand the dynamics of Pacific climate variability and its impact on marine populations, and develop new observational programs. During the session there will be discussion time where the contributors will be asked to participate in developing a synthesis paper on North Pacific climate variability as part of the PICES WG27 activities (http://wg27.pices.int).

James A. Johnstone and Nathan J. Mantua (Invited)
Causes and consequences of NE Pacific climate trends and variations from 1900-2012 (9367) [pdf, 5 Mb]
Matthew Newman, Michael A. Alexander and Dimitry Smirnov
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited (9396) [pdf, 7 Mb]
Bo Qiu, Shuiming Chen, Niklas Schneider and Bunmei Taguchi
A coupled decadal prediction of the Kuroshio Extension system (9381) [pdf, 2.5 Mb]
Niklas Schneider and Bunmei Taguchi
The role of spiciness in North Pacific decadal variability (9386) [pdf, 9 Mb]
Andrey Krovnin, Boris Kotenev and George Moury
Role of North Atlantic climatic variability in recent North Pacific warming (9299) [pdf, 2.5 Mb]
Shoshiro Minobe, Curtis Deutsch, Yutaka Hosoya and Hartmut Frenzel
Secular nutrient changes in observation and numerical modeling in the western North Pacific in the last 50-years (9387)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Takamitsu Ito, Yohei Takano, Curtis Deutsch and Athanasios Nenes (Invited)
Changing oxygen content of the Pacific basin: Anthropogenic trend or natural variability? (9315)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Sung Yong Kim and Bruce Cornuelle
A description of T/S and oxygen variability off southern California using regional- and globalscale climate indices (9283)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Mercedes Pozo Buil, Emanuele Di Lorenzo and Steven J. Bograd
Decadal prediction of hypoxia along the US West Coast (9389) [pdf, 7 Mb]
Arthur J. Miller, Hajoon Song and Aneesh Subramanian
The physical oceanographic environment of the southern California Current during past decade: Changes in climate and concepts (9374) [pdf, 1 Mb]
Shin-ichi Ito, Sohsuke Ohno, Takeshi Okunishi, Satoshi Suyama, Masayasu Nakagami, Daisuke Ambe and Takahiko Kameda
A challenge to investigate environmental factors which determine spawning migration variability of small pelagic: An example of Pacific saury (9332)
(permission to post denied, contact presenter)
Sukgeun Jung
Asynchronous responses of fish assemblages to climate-driven ocean regime shifts between the upper and deep layer in the Ulleung Basin of the East Sea from 1986 to 2010 (9405) [pdf, 25 Mb]
  • Symposium Scope
  • Symposium Structure
  • Scientific Program
  • Venue
  • Organizers
  • Schedule
  • Plenary and Invited Speakers
  • Registration
    Registration Summary
  • Abstract Submission
    Submitted Abstracts
  • Publication
    Book of Abstracts
  • Financial Support
  • Transportation
  • Visa
  • Accommodation
  • Floor Plan
  • Social Events
  • Contact
  • NEWS
    Important Dates
  • January 13 , 2014
    bstract submission deadline

    Financial support application deadline
    Early registration deadline
  • February 7 , 2014
    Abstract acceptance notification

    Financial support grant notification
  • April 14-18 , 2014
    Symposium and associated workshops
  • October 1 , 2014
    Manuscript submission deadline
    mportant Dates
    Past Deadlines
    May 13 , 2013
  • Deadline for submissions of workshop proposals
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