Scientific Program  

A 5-day (May 15–19) symposium will consist of:

Morning plenary sessions on Days 1–5, each with 3 keynote speakers to introduce themes for the concurrent sessions to be convened on the same day and to provide overarching presentations focusing on the integration or more general hot topics, and a plenary session in the afternoon of Day 5 (immediately prior to the closing ceremony), to summarize the results and provide a wrap-up of the symposium;
Concurrent (2 to 3) theme sessions every day, following a morning plenary session;
Workshops on the day prior to and the day immediately after the symposium; the number of the concurrent workshops depends on the capacity of the venue.

Scientific sessions will include invited and contributed papers. Contributed papers will be selected for oral and poster presentation.

Posters will be on display for the entire duration of the symposium. Two evening poster sessions/receptions will take place on Days 2 and 3. At these sessions, poster presenters are expected to be available to answer questions. All coffee breaks and receptions will be held in the poster area to maximize opportunities to view the contributions and to interact with the presenters.


General plenary speakers

Climate change: Mitigation and adaptation policy
Keith Alverson (United Nations Environment Programme)

Assessing the combined impacts of ocean warming, declining oxygen, and rising CO2 levels on aerobic marine life
Peter Brewer (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, USA)

Social, economic and governance impacts of climate change on fisheries
Anthony Charles (St. Mary's University, Canada)

Recent Advances in studies for East Sea (Sea of Japan), a miniature test ocean for global changes
Kyung-Ryul Kim (Seoul National University, Korea)

IPCC process: Atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interaction (observations and modeling)
Peter Lemke (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany)

Summary of the symposium
Corinne Le Quere (University of East Anglia, UK)

Interactions between fisheries production, planktonic ecosystems, physical oceanographic processes and climate change
Ichiro Yasuda
(AORI, University of Tokyo, Japan)

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Selected Themes

A set of theme sessions and workshops was identified by the Scientific Steering Committee:


S1: Climate variability versus anthropogenic impacts; analysing their separate and combined effects on long-term physical, biogeochemical and ecological patterns

Sanae Chiba (JAMSTEC, Japan)
Nicholas A. Bond (JISAO, University of Washington, USA)

Plenary speaker:
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)

Invited speakers:
Nathan Bindoff (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Shin-ichi Uye (Hiroshima University, Japan)

There is a strong scientific consensus that human-induced global warming is occurring, with this signal having been detected even into the deep ocean. The effects of climate change are not restricted to just temperature, but also have been observed in water properties such as pH and oxygen concentrations. The world’s oceans will continue to be influenced by natural variability over a range of temporal and spatial scales, which can obscure anthropogenic effects. The confounding effects of intrinsic fluctuations in the physical forcing can be especially challenging to sort out for marine ecosystems, due to the complexity of the interactions controlling the biogeochemistry of the ocean. But that challenge needs to be met in order to be able to predict probable shifts and trends in the structure and function of marine ecosystems, and to carry out effective mitigation. This session invites papers on topics related to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenic climate change with respect to marine ecosystems. We seek papers featuring a variety of approaches, and expect lively discussions of their relative merits and limitations.

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S2: Systematic, sustained and integrated global ocean observations

Keith Alverson (UNEP, Division of Environmental Policy Implementation)
Dong-Young Lee (Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Korea)

Plenary speaker:
Pedro Monteiro (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, (CSIR), South Africa)

Invited speakers:
Hee-Dong Jeong (National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Korea)
Eric Lindstrom (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA)

Over the past two decades a sustained ocean observations for climate have evolved from a patchwork of research efforts to a sustained Global Ocean Observing System. A network of satellites and in situ platforms are monitoring essential climate variables in service of research needs and societal benefits. Reporting to the parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ensures the adequacy of the system for purposes largely associated with detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. This session seeks to build on these past successes, but with an eye to the future of sustained ocean monitoring. In particular, focusing on sustained ocean observations is required in support of climate change adaptation measures and biogeochemical variables. Prioritization and assessment of climate change adaptation measures will call for very different monitoring strategies than have been designed for detection and attribution. At the same time, monitoring non-climatic targets, including for example acidification, biodiversity changes and ecosystem shifts, will require that new variables are integrated with the existing system. The session seeks a broad range of presentations on ocean monitoring, including both past results and future strategies.

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S3: Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and their uncertainty

Kyung-Il Chang (Seoul National University, Korea)
Corinna Schrum (University of Bergen, Norway)

Plenary spearker:
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)

Invited speakers:
Noel Keenlyside (Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway)
Markus Meier (Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut, Sweden)
Ryan Rykaczewski (Princeton University, USA)

Within the last decades increasing scientific evidence indicates that climate change is occurring and impacting the functioning and structuring of regional marine ecosystems on various scales in various ways. Politicians and environmental and fisheries managers increasingly demand answers from scientist to assess regional impacts and future changes and risks for regional marine ecosystems and marine resources. Consequently, scientific efforts have been undertaken recently to develop tools and dynamically consistent methods to assess the regional climate change impacts to the marine ecosystems. These projections typically build on future climate change scenarios from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and involve model chains with modelling tools for various regional parts of the marine ecosystems, such as coupled physical-biological models for the lower trophic levels, IBMs (individual based models) for fish larvae, multi-species or end-to-end models. Such projections involve a number of practical and conceptual challenges and are subject to uncertainties that arise from the baseline global climate projections and downstream modelling tools.

This session invites papers to all aspects related to climate change projections for global and regional marine physical, biogeochemical and ecological systems. In particular, we are inviting contributions related to: (i) projected changes, risks and potential chances, (ii) various downscaling methods (bias corrections, delta change) and their impacts on dynamic consistency of the projections and (iii) uncertainties in projections and error propagation through the model chain. We are seeking a lively and open discussion about potentials and limitations of climate change projections and downscaling to marine ecosystems.

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S4: Climate change effects on living marine resources: From physics to fish, marine mammals, and seabirds, to fishermen and fishery-dependent communities

Miguel Bernal (Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Spain)
Keith Criddle (University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Anne Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA-Fisheries, USA)

Plenary speaker:
Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)

Invited speaker:
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Japan)

Climate change is likely to affect the biological components of marine ecosystem at various spatial and temporal scales, and will have different effects at species, population and ecosystem levels. This session will cover climate-induced changes in the medium to high trophic levels of the marine ecosystem biological components, including fish, mammals, seabirds and humans. Changes in those communities expected to be analysed in the session include shifts in distribution of species, changes in fish reproduction and productivity, migratory routes, changes in the productivity of littoral habitat (e.g., estuaries, marshes), changes in freshwater habitat for anadromous species, and loss in marine biodiversity. Mechanisms of individual, population and ecosystem – including humans - responses to climate change, such as marine populations acclimation and adaptation; resilience of fishery management systems; resilience of fishery dependent communities (including modern and subsistence-dependent economies) effects on management of transboundary stocks; interactions of climate and harvesting impacts on fish populations, will also be dealt with.

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S5: From genes to ecosystems: Genetic and physiological responses to climate change

Julie Hall (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand)
Coleen Moloney (University of Cape Town, South Africa)

Plenary speaker:
Ann Bucklin (University of Connecticut, USA)

Invited speaker:
Carl van der Lingen (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, South Africa)

Individual organisms experience the effects of climate change directly. Their responses are governed by genotype, phenotype, physiology and behaviour. The responses by individuals ultimately influence the impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems. This session aims to understand and explore the rich variety of genetic and physiological responses to climate change, and to assess the progress we have made in predicting the presence, extent and persistence of the impacts of these responses at the level of the ecosystem.

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S6: Marine spatial planning and risk management in the context of climate change: The living ocean and coast under changing climate

Adriaan Rijnsdorp (IMARES, The Netherlands)
Christian Möllmann (University of Hamburg, Germany)

Plenary speaker:
Hugh Possingham (University of Queensland, Australia)

Invited speaker:
John K. Pinnegar (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory, UK)

Climate change will impact marine ecosystems and their habitats in various ways. Effects will include changed distribution and productivity of marine organisms, connectivity and adaptability of populations as well as overall biodiversity. The different climate-induced changes will have implications for the spatial management of our living resources and marine ecosystems. Especially migratory fish stocks move between management units leading to conflicts between resource users. Hence their dynamics will become more uncertain under climate change, and conservation objectives have to be re-defined or adapted. In this session, we will discuss how climate change may affect the human activities on the sea and explore how society can adapt its policies and uses of the marine ecosystem.

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S7: Coastal and low-lying areas

Iñigo Losada (University of Cantabria, Spain)
Poh Poh Wong (University of Adelaide, Australia)

Plenary speaker:
Carlos Duarte (Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies, CSIC, Spain)
Núria Marbà on behalf of Carlos Duarte

Invited speaker:
Poh Poh Wong (University of Adelaide, Australia)

Scientific evidence has been presented during the last decades that the coasts and low-lying areas, especially deltas, are experiencing the adverse consequences of the hazards related to climate change. Saltmarshes, coral reefs, mangroves and other relevant ecosystems are and will be suffering degradation affecting seriously their sustainability and the services they provide. Besides, coastal human settlements are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially to extreme events. The combination of sea level rise with the alteration of sea surface temperature, storm surges, waves, run-off/precipitation and acidification are some of the relevant elements to be considered. Besides, external stressors mostly originated by increasing human-pressure such as land-use, hydrological changes in catchments, groundwater extraction or reduced sediment supply exacerbate the impact of climate change. Erosion, flooding, saltwater intrusion, ecosystem deterioration and migration or increasing valuable human assets at risk are some of the immediate impacts requiring further research and immediate action. In this session, we invite contributions that may help to clarify and quantify the drivers of climate change impacts in coastal areas, from the evidence to projections as well as those considering the impacts and adaptation options for natural and human coastal systems.

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S8: Trend and impacts of de-oxygenation in oceanic and coastal ecosystems

Frank Whitney (Canada)
Evgeniy Yakushev (Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Norway/Russia)

Plenary speaker:
Lothar Stramma (GEOMAR, Germany)

Invited speakers:
Steven Bograd (Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA-Fisheries, USA)
Felix Janssen (Max-Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology, Germany)

Modifications to ocean circulation due to global warming are being observed broadly throughout our oceans. Surface warming of our planet reduces oxygen solubility in seawater, increases mixed layer buoyancy and reduces ice formation in important ventilation areas. All of these processes lead to a reduction in oxygen transport to the interior waters of major ocean basins and coastal seas. As a transition zone between the continents and the ocean, coastal waters are natural susceptibility to oxygen-deficiency and anoxia due to both the input of low density coastal water and topographic restrictions which can increase the residence time of bottom waters.

Oxygen depletion inevitably leads to biological impacts ranging from altered microbial activity (e.g., enhanced de-nitrification, N2O production or sulfate reduction) to whole community displacements (loss of fisheries, invasions of displaced species into new habitat) which are poorly understood. As well, oxygen losses in the interior ocean are accompanied by increased acidity as carbon dioxide levels rise. These two trends may have synergistic impacts on biota. Contributions across these diverse topics, as well as on expansions of coastal dead zones caused by non-climate related change, are invited.

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S9: Marine tipping points in the earth system

Gretta Pecl (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Martin Visbeck (IFM-GEOMAR, Germany)

Plenary speaker:
Jeffrey Dambacher (CSIRO, Australia)

Invited speaker:
Mike Litzow (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Jacob Schewe (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany)

The ocean plays a central role in the regional and global climate system. Its circulation, temperature and salinity patterns, nutrient distributions and chemical composition are mainly influenced by changes in the atmosphere and fluxes from the land. This ocean state provides the basis for the marine ecosystem, which itself has several complex interdependencies. From complex system theory we know that many systems tend to respond in an almost linear fashion to changes in the forcing. However, at some point a critical value can be reached, and the system responds with a dramatic switch-like behavior into a new stable state, having passed a critical tipping point. Evidence for tipping points in nature is often generated only after the consequences of a major shift become obvious. Predicting the existence and effects of tipping points on ocean state or ecosystem function are major, and likely increasing, challenges for both scientists and resource managers. This session will provide an overview of some of the known tipping points in the marine system and invites contributions to elaborate on our mechanistic understanding of these or provide evidence or a strong theoretical basis for new tipping points. Disciplines to be covered range from ocean circulation dynamics, sea ice formation, de-oxygenation, through to dramatic shifts in ecosystem structure and function, and beyond.

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S10: Changes in the marine carbon cycle

James Christian (Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada)
Kitack Lee (POSTECH, Korea)

Plenary speaker:
Ben McNeil (University of New South Wales, Australia)

Invited speaker:
Dr. Masao Ishii (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan)

The carbon cycle is the primary mechanism by which ocean processes determine future atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated climate changes. Ocean acidification affects all marine biota and future ocean carbon fluxes and ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This session invites all presentations on the ocean carbon cycle, its interactions with the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and other nutrient elements, and ocean acidification. Processes of interest include ocean-atmosphere exchange, fluxes across the pycnocline, interactions of CO2 with the carbon cycle that determine the future course of ocean acidification and ocean CO2 concentration, and acidification impacts on biota.

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Poster Session:

Posters will be on display during the entire Meeting. Two Poster-Reception Sessions will be held on May 16 and May 17, when poster presenters are expected to be available to answer questions.

Maximum poster dimensions - 90cm (width) × 150-160cm (length) - portrait oriented.

Please add your PHOTO to the right upper corner of the poster.



W1: Ocean observation: Strategic framework

David Checkley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA)
Candyce Clark (Climate Project Office, NOAA, USA)

The ocean observation workshop is to address the new multidisciplinary requirements (both climate and non-climate) being placed on the marine observing community. The primary objective of the workshop will be to begin consideration of the approaches needed to move these new multidisciplinary and diverse observing requirements forward into the next decade. Particular attention will be to follow up on the discussions at the symposium theme session on “Systematic, sustained and integrated global ocean observations” that are directed at how to integrate new biogeochemical, biodiversity and ecosystem shifts observations into a sustained observing system integrated with established monitoring systems. The Framework for Ocean Observing document will serve as the foundation for these exchanges. A panel of several scientists with diverse expertise will be selected to prepare short presentations and then lead the audience in discussion. An intense effort to incorporate early career scientists into the workshop is essential to ensure that a cadre of future observationalists is available.

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W2: Climate change projections for marine ecosystems: Best practice, limitations and interpretation

Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers University, USA)
Icarus Allen (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)

Invited speakers:
William Cheung (Fisheries Centre, UBC, Canada)
Villy Christensen (University of British Columbia, Canada)
Jason Holt (National Oceanographic Centre, UK)
Charles Stock (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA)

This 2-day workshop aims to assemble scientists interested in making and interpreting projections of ecosystem responses to future climate change. The goal is to describe different approaches to modeling the impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems, their ability to support sustainable harvesting and to highlight the strengths and limitations of the different approaches. We seek models that address both global and regional ecosystems and are particularly interested in presentations covering a range of models from statistical to mechanistic approaches including mass-balance (ECOPATH), size-based, minimalist, individual-based (IBMs) and end-to-end (E2E) models. Emphasis will be placed on models that examine trophic interactions as well as approaches that link biogeochemical processes with higher trophic level production. Papers that discuss advantages and limitations of particular approaches and discuss the quantification of uncertainty in climate forced simulations are encouraged.

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W3: Coastal Blue Carbon: Mitigation opportunities and vulnerability to change

Ik Kyo Chung (PNU, Korea)
Gabriel Grimsditch (UNEP)
Jerker Tamelander (UNEP)

Invited speaker:
Carlos Duarte (Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies, CSIC, Spain)
Núria Marbà on behalf of Carlos Duarte

Blue Carbon is a relatively recent concept in finding nature-based solutions to climate change. It recognizes the role that coastal ecosystems can play in climate change mitigation as well as adaptation, as these ecosystems (in particular mangroves, intertidal marshes, seaweed beds and seagrass beds) hold vast CO2 reservoirs. In fact, the rates of carbon sequestration and storage in coastal ecosystems are comparable to and often higher than those rates in carbon-rich terrestrial ecosystems such as tropical rainforests or peatlands. Given the recent heightened interest in coastal Blue Carbon, the science surrounding the concept is advancing rapidly; especially concerning our understanding of how coastal ecosystems sequester and store carbon, where the ‘hotspots’ for coastal Blue Carbon are, how rapidly the ecosystems are being lost or modified because of anthropogenic disturbances and climatic changes, and the releases of carbon that follow ecosystem loss of modification. Although our understanding of these crucial questions is improving, there are still large gaps in our knowledge and our scientific understanding of these processes and how to manage them.

The objectives of this 1-day workshop are to: a) synthesize the current status of scientific knowledge of the role that coastal ecosystems play in climate change mitigation, and to identify how this knowledge can support management strategies and policy decisions; b) identify the major gaps in knowledge concerning coastal Blue Carbon that still need to be addressed; c) analyze the major threats to coastal Blue Carbon and how different damaging anthropogenic practices as well as climate change are responsible for causing greenhouse gas emissions from these ecosystems, as well as eroding the various ecosystem services provided; d) provide Blue Carbon science-based policy recommendations for the management of coastal carbon sinks; e) raise awareness of successful coastal Blue Carbon case studies around the world; and f) explore possibilities for Blue Carbon policy, science and pilot projects in the region of East Asia and set out a plan of action for Blue Carbon in the region of East Asia.

The outcomes of the workshop are expected to be: (1) a white paper/workshop report, providing a synthesis of current status of scientific knowledge on coastal Blue Carbon, identification of major gaps in knowledge, successful Blue Carbon case studies, and management strategies that protect and enhance these carbon stocks, including an analysis of threats and damaging activities to coastal Blue Carbon and how they are responsible for greenhouse gas emissions; and (2) a plan of action for Blue Carbon in the region of East Asia, outlining research needs, policy gaps and possible pilot projects.

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W4: Effects of climate change on advective fluxes in high latitude regions

Ken Drinkwater (Institute of marine Research, Norway)
George Hunt (University of Washington, USA)
Eugene Murphy (British Antarctic Survey, UK)
Jinping Zhao (Ocean University of China, PR China)

This 1-day workshop, sponsored by ESSAS (Ecosystem Studies of Subarctic Seas) and ICED (Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics in the Southern Ocean), will briefly review the advection of water masses within and between polar and sub-polar regions and their driving mechanisms. It will also review the role of advection on the ecology of these high latitude regions, including heat and nutrient fluxes as well as the advection of flora and fauna. (Click here for more details about workshop's background). The major objective of the workshop, however, is to develop likely scenarios of these advective fluxes under climate change. Comparative studies of the responses in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are also of interest. To achieve these objectives we plan to bring together atmospheric scientists, climatologists, biogeochemists, physical and biological oceanographers, ecologists, and fisheries scientists who will use a combination of conceptual, statistical and numerical models studies. The workshop will also receive input from the ESSAS-sponsored Theme Session on “Arctic-Subarctic Interaction” to be held at the Ocean Sciences Meeting in Salt Lake City in February 2012 and the ICED Sentinel meeting on “Southern Ocean Ecosystem Change and Future Projections” to be held in Hobart in early May 2012. The workshop will consist of a few focused invited talks with significant discussion time to address the main topic, the expected future high latitude circulation patterns and their ecological effects.

The primary outcomes of the workshop aim to be: (1) a paper on the future physical, chemical and biological fluxes in high latitude regions under climate change; (2) identification of the gaps in our knowledge about these advective processes and development of recommendations for future research to address these gaps; and (3) discussions on the formation of a Working Group under IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research) to compare the structure and function of sub-polar and polar ecosystems for the Arctic and Antarctic.

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W5: Public perception of climate change

Dohoon Kim (National Fisheries Research & Development Institute, Korea)
Katja Philippart (Royal NIOZ, The Netherlands)

Invited speakers:
Paul Buckley (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), UK)
Mitsutaku Makino (Fisheries Research Agency, Japan)

Despite extensive research programs including considerable outreach efforts focusing specifically on climate change in the marine environment, very little of this research has reached public consciousness, and the level of public awareness of such issues is still relatively low. The reasons for this limited uptake are unclear, and in particular it is not known whether the lack of public awareness is primarily a consequence of limited media attention in marine science or climate change issues, whether it reflects limited efforts by the research community (or funding agencies) to communicate or publicize their results, or whether it reflects a general lack of understanding among the public of scientific and technical issues.

During this 0.5-day workshop, we will explore the effectiveness of different approaches for promoting the climate change messages to a wider audience. We will discuss trends and developments in the scope of outreach activities, for example the recent inclusion of social networking websites (e.g., Facebook and Twitter), among the arsenal of tools used by research projects. Most importantly, we will address the ways in which scientific information on the effects of climate change on the world’s oceans could be presented in such a way as to create engagement, in addition to merely to increase public knowledge.

The outcome of the workshop will include a compilation of recommendations with regard to outreach programs and communicating with the public, stakeholders and policy makers, ranging from suggestions of particular tools and techniques that have proven useful or effective elsewhere, to recommendations regarding project strategy, planning and cost-effectiveness (taking into account the regional variation in possibilities and limitations of outreach). Based on the outcomes of the workshop, we will submit a joint manuscript to the special Issue of the ICES Journal of Marine Science.

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W6: Climate change and range shifts in the ocean: Detection, prediction and adaptation

Amanda Bates (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Gretta Pecl (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Stewart Frusher (University of Tasmania, Australia)
Alistair Hobday (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Warwick Sauer (Rhodes University, South Africa)
David Vousden (UNDP GEF Agulhas and Somali Currents Large Marine
      Ecosystems Project, South Africa)

Thomas Wernberg (University of Western Australia, Australia)

Invited speakers:
Alistair Hobday (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Warwick Sauer (Rhodes University, South Africa)
Thomas Wernberg (University of Western Australia, Australia)

Climate change driven changes in the phenology, distribution and abundance of marine species are being reported around the globe. Distributional changes are the most commonly reported, sometimes involving shifts of 100’s of km. Changes in exploited species may subsequently affect the utilization of marine resources, with ramifications that range from fishers’ profitability and livelihoods to food security, poverty and social cohesion. Despite this importance, there are currently limitations to the detection and prediction of range shifts. Overcoming these is critical for policy adaptation to manage shifting marine resources in order to enhance food security.

Ocean warming “hotspots”, or regions where ocean temperatures are rising most rapidly represent an opportunity to quickly advance our understanding of factors limiting detection of range shifts and to formulate predictions of future changes. We aim to develop of an inter-disciplinary team representing ocean “hotspots” from around the globe to identify knowledge gaps in the detection and prediction of range shifts at different temporal and spatial scales. Adaptation responses to the predicted changes should be robust to uncertainty in both detection and prediction, and shared experience is critical to minimize independent adaptation failures. We also aim to identify and further develop effective mechanisms for translating scientific information into active management guidelines and policy for adaptive governance that can respond to ecosystem variation.

The main objective of this 1-day workshop is to lay the groundwork to develop contextually relevant response strategies to ensure sustainable resource use, management and food security by addressing the following three themes:

  1. Detection: methods to quantify climate driven range extensions and contractions at different time scales;
  2. Prediction: biological responses in ocean warming “hotspots” that can advance our understanding of likely changes both at hotspots and in a wider set of regions;
  3. Adaptation: marine resource management, policy and governance responses to species range shifts for present and into the future, and at different spatial scales.

This will be a discussion-based workshop and, in order to maximize interaction time, oral presentations will not be accepted. Relevant poster abstract submissions can be displayed during the workshop. Please note that the same abstract can also be submitted to a session at the main symposium for oral or poster presentation.

The main outcome of the workshop are expected to be: (1) a conceptual model of mechanisms, consequences and feedbacks involved in species range shifts, outlining critical links between detection, prediction and adaptation (this model will be developed into a publication for a high profile journal such as Nature Climate Change), (2) a workshop report, and (3) a summary article in PICES Press. The outputs from the workshop will be featured on Marine Hotspots website (

Relevant references

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W7: Beyond dispersion: integrating individual-based models for bioenergetics and behavior with biophysical transport models to predict influences of climate change on recruitment processes in marine species

William T. Stockhausen (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA-Fisheries, USA)
Sukyung Kang (National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Korea)
Carolina Parada (INPESCA, Chile)

Invited speakers:
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Japan)
Myron Peck (Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Hamburg, Germany)

Future climate change is expected to influence the abundance and distribution of marine fish species in complex ways, including changes in the local environmental characteristics and transport pathways experienced by early life stages that are typically pelagic, such as eggs and larvae. To date, numerous coupled biophysical models have been developed to study the influence of oceanographic transport patterns on dispersion of early life stages and recruitment variability in marine fish species. In many of these models, advective oceanographic processes are hypothesized to be the main determinant of recruitment variability; simulated individuals in the models are regarded primarily as passive particles or drifters and “success” is judged by the relative number of simulated particles that end up being advected to suitable juvenile nursery grounds. While these models represent an important step in our ability to understand and predict the effects of climate change on recruitment, they ignore important effects (temperature/salinity stress, food availability, etc.) on growth and survival associated with the environmental conditions encountered by the (simulated) individuals along their drift trajectories. While individual-based bioenergetic models can be used to address the impact of local environmental variation on the growth and survival of eggs and larvae, few bioenergetics models have been targeted toward early marine life stages, few coupled biophysical models incorporate bioenergetic considerations, and fewer still have been used to address the potential impact of climate change on marine species.

The objectives of this 1-day workshop are to: (1) stimulate the integration of bioenergetic considerations within coupled biophysical modes by bringing together researchers with expertise in bioenergetic models for early marine life stages and researchers with expertise in coupled biophysical models to facilitate cross-discipline communication; and (2) discuss state-of-the-art techniques and develop guidelines and “best practices” for incorporating individual-based bioenergetics models within existing or future coupled biophysical models to improve the biological realism associated with these latter models.

Anticipated products from the workshop include a workshop report and a white paper on best practices toward integrating bioenergetics considerations into individual-based coupled biophysical models.

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    Important Dates
    August 1 , 2011
  • Abstract submission opens
  • Financial support application opens
  • Registration opens
    September 15 , 2011
  • Deadline for submissions of proposals and workshops
    September 30 , 2011
  • Workshop acceptance notification
    January 13 , 2012
  • Abstract submission deadline (extended)
  • Financial support application deadline (extended)
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    February 6 , 2012
  • Abstract acceptance notification
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    May 14-20 , 2012
  • Symposium and associated workshops
    June 15 , 2012
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