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Session 10. Banking on recruitment curves; Returns on intellectual investment

Co-Sponsored by ISC

Co-Convenors: Anne Hollowed (USA), Skip McKinnell (PICES), Hiroshi Okamura (Japan) and Cisco Werner (ISC)

Invited Speakers:
Louis Botsford (University of California at Davis, USA)
Jon Brodziak (NOAA/PIFSC, USA)

During the first half of the 20th century, one of the fundamental issues in the then nascent discipline of fisheries science was determining how many individuals could be removed from a fish population without affecting its ability to keep producing fish for a fishery. In the 1950s, theoretical solutions to this problem were discovered in mathematical formulations that emerged from the work of Ricker, Beverton, Holt and others. These closed-form solutions led to widespread adoption as electronic computing technology became widely available in fisheries labs in the 1960s. Concepts that emerged from their equations underpin current estimation of biological reference points used to set harvest strategies for many of the world’s fisheries. Spawner-recruitment (S-R) curves serve as the foundation for what of a fish population remains to be conserved. With so much at stake, it is surprising that their application in contemporary fisheries is taken for granted. This session will delve into the good, the bad, and the ugly consequences of using recruitment curves, with an idea of determining whether an intellectual course correction is needed for the next 50 years. This topic session seeks papers that introduce new approaches to modeling the relationship between spawners and recruitment including: (1) incorporating predator prey interactions in S-R models, (2) use of coupled bio-physical models in identifying mechanisms linking spawners and recruitment, (3) consideration of the role of cohort resonance, (4) techniques for incorporating environmental variability into S-R functions, (5) stage-based S-R approaches, (6) comparative studies testing the performance of different methods relative to observations, and (7) decision rules regarding how to utilize knowledge of S-R relationships in formulating harvest advice. Enthusiasm for this topic session will be used to seek publication in a Special Issue in a primary journal.

 
Thursday, October 17
 
Louis W. Botsford, J. Wilson White, Alan Hastings, Lauren Yamane, Flora Cordoleani, Patrick Kilduff and Allison Dedrick (Invited)
Stock-recruitment and population variability in a changing, uncertain world (S10-8889)
(pdf, 3 Mb)
 
Michio J. Kishi, Seokjin Yoon, Takeshi Terui, Satoshi Suyama, Masayasu Nakagami and Shin-ichi Ito
A Lagrangian modeling approach for Pacific saury migrations
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)
 
Cheryl S. Harrison and David A. Siegel
The tattered curtain hypothesis revisited: Coastal jets limit cross-shelf benthic larval transport
(pdf, 17 Mb)
 
La Treese S. Denson and David B. Sampson
Using environmental data to inform spatial stock assessments with Stock Synthesis
(pdf, 0.5 Mb)
 
Jonathan I. Richar, Gordon H. Kruse, Albert J. Hermann and Enrique Curchitser
Effects of shifting population demographics, oceanography, and predation on apparent stockrecruit relationships for Tanner crabs in the eastern Bering Sea
(pdf, 5 Mb)
 
Catherine J.G. Michielsens, Mike Lapointe and Carl J. Walters
Exploring density dependence, delayed density dependence and time varying productivity to explain decreased productivity of Fraser River sockeye salmon
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
Kirstin K. Holsman, Kerim Aydin and Jim Ianelli
Using multi-species food-web and assessment models to evaluate climate change impacts on fisheries
(pdf, 3 Mb)
 
Skip McKinnell
A simple model framework for assessing salmon production and setting escapement targets
(permission to post denied - contact presenter)
 
TCODE COMMITTEE BEST PRESENTATION AWARD
Robyn E. Forrest, Murdoch K. McAllister, Steven J.D. Martell and Carl J. Walters
Modelling the effects of density-dependent mortality in juvenile red snapper caught as bycatch in Gulf of Mexico shrimp fisheries: Implications for management
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
Cody S. Szuwalski, Katyana A. Vert-Pre, Andre E. Punt, Trevor A. Branch and Ray Hilborn
Environment drives recruitment dynamics for most marine fisheries
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
 
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