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Session 3. Tipping points: defining reference points for ecological indicators of multiple stressors in coastal and marine ecosystem

Co-sponsored by International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and Integrated
Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER)

Rebecca G. Martone (USA)
Ian Perry (Canada)
Jameal Samhouri (USA)
Motomitsu Takahashi (Japan)
Maciej Tomczak (Poland / ICES)
Chang Ik Zhang (Korea)

Invited Speakers:
Phil Levin (NNOAA NW Fisheries Science Center, USA)
Tetsuo Yanagi (Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Japan)

Many coastal and marine ecosystems, ranging from reefs to estuaries to pelagic systems, are exposed to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes with significant, long-term consequences that are often difficult to reverse. Changes in ocean climate, the abundance of key species, nutrients, and other factors drive these shifts, which affect ocean food webs, habitats, and ecosystem functions and people's livelihoods and well-being. Determining indicators of ecological changes due to multiple stressors and defining reference points for those indicators are key steps for managers to avoid ecological degradation and loss of keys goods and services. Setting ecological reference points in ecological systems presents a challenge to resource managers because (a) reference points are often difficult to determine due to the complexity of natural systems, including the presence of thresholds, tipping points, and non-linearities; (b) the paucity of theoretical modeling and empirical understanding needed to address these complexities, identify ecological thresholds and develop early warning indicators means that managers must make decisions based on high levels of uncertainty; and, (c) many institutional and governance structures do not allow managers the necessary flexibility to take up this information and react within relevant timeframes. This session will address these pressing challenges, and explore promising approaches to tackling them with the goal of catalyzing new research and management innovation. In particular, we invite presentations that (i) define the conceptual basis for reference points and management objectives surrounding reference points; (ii) use theoretical, modeling and observational approaches to identify potential reference points for indicators of changes in marine ecosystems; (iii) incorporate risk and sources of error (measurement, model, process) in such analyses; (iv) discuss how reference points may be used in helping to manage marine ecosystems, specifically in relation to the decision-making process related to evaluating and deciding on acceptable levels of risk. These discussions will be guided by the FUTURE science themes, with special attention to examining climate and anthropogenic drivers of ecological change, and identifying early warning indicators to enable forecasting to avoid crossing
ecological thresholds. The outcomes will contribute to the work of PICES Working Group 28 on Development of ecosystem indicators to characterize ecosystem responses to multiple stressors.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Marine ecosystem regime shifts: Challenges and opportunities for Ecosystem-Based Management (Invited)
Phil Levin
[waiting for permission]

Tipping points and decision-making: Why they matter, why they are hard, and practical
things to do

Jake Rice
[pdf, 0.5 Mb]

Embedding the science of tipping points into ocean management
Rebecca Martone, Carrie Kappel, Courtney Scarborough, Mary Hunsicker, Ben Halpern, Kimberly Selkoe, Phil Levin, Jameal F. Samhouri, Crow White, Ashley Erickson, Ryan Kelly, Lindley Mease, Margaret Caldwell, Larry Crowder and Rod Fujita
[pdf, 28 Mb]

Ecological network indicators of ecosystem status and change in the Baltic Sea
Maciej T. Tomczak, Johanna J. Heymans, Johanna Yletyinen, Susa Niiranen, Saskia A. Otto and Thorsten Blenckner
[pdf, 3 Mb]

Regional variations in ecosystem responses to anthropogenic activities and natural stressors
in the Seto Inland Sea

Motomitsu Takahashi, Sachihiko Itoh, Naoki Yoshie and Kazuhiko Mochida
[permission to post denied, contact presenter]

Potential early warning indicators of marine ecosystem changes in coastal British Columbia, Canada
R. Ian Perry
[pdf, 1 Mb]

Seabird indicators and "tipping points" in North Pacific marine ecosystems
William J. Sydeman, Sarah Ann Thompson, Julie A. Thayer, Marisol Garcia-Reyes, Heather Renner, John F. Piatt, Stephanie Zador and Yutaka Watanuki
[pdf, 3 Mb]

The effects of acute gamma irradiation on the survival and the physiological and biochemical indexes of Chinese black sleeper, Bostrichthys sinensis
Wen Yu, Tao Yu, Yusheng Zhang and Feng Lin
[pdf, 2 Mb]

The combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the physiological condition of the
olive flounder larvae Paralichthys olivaceus

Kyung-Su Kim, JeongHee Shim and Suam Kim
[pdf, 4 Mb]

Eutrophication and oligotrophication processes in the Seto Inland Sea and their relationships to the Satoumi concept (Invited)
Tetsuo Yanagi
[pdf, 5 Mb]

Diversity of perceptions and utility of marine ecosystem services
Kazumi Wakita, Zhonghua Shen, Taro Oishi, Nobuyuki Yagi, Hisashi Kurokura and Ken Furuya
[pdf, 1 Mb]

Assessment of the magnitude and interrelationship of seasonal phytoplankton bloom occurrence at the Japanese scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) farming area of Okhotsk Sea, Hokkaido, Japan
Christopher Mulanda Aura, Sei-Ichi Saitoh, Yang Liu and Toru Hirawake
[pdf, 1.5 Mb]

Ordered re-assembly of marine ecosystems
Jameal F. Samhouri, Adrian C. Stier and Phil Levin
[permission to post denied, contact presenter]

Potential reference points for mean trophic level of macrofauna in the Sea of Okhotsk
Konstantin M. Gorbatenko, Vladimir V. Kulik and Artem E. Lazshentsev
[pdf, 1 Mb]

The bioconcentration of artificial radionuclides by marine animals after the Fukushima nuclear accident in the Northwest Pacific
Wu Men, Jianhua He, Wen Yu, Fenfen Wang, Wuhui Lin and Yusheng Zhang
[permission to post denied, contact presenter]

Seasonal and spatial variations in nematode assemblages affected by thermal influence of a
nuclear power plant in Korea (East Sea, Pacific Ocean)

Hyeong-gi Kim, Hyun soo Rho and Chul-woong Oh
[waiting for permission]

Characterization of absorbed dose from natural and anthropogenic radionuclides for the purpose of establishing reference points within the marine environment
Delvan R. Neville and Kathryn A. Higley
[pdf, 1 Mb]

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