PICES 2014 - S3 presentations- PICES - North Pacific Marine Science Organization

Session 3. Tipping points: defining reference points for ecological indicators of multiple stressors in coastal and marine ecosystem

Co-sponsored by International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and Integrated
Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER)

Co-Convenors:
Rebecca G. Martone (USA)
Ian Perry (Canada)
Jameal Samhouri (USA)
Motomitsu Takahashi (Japan)
Maciej Tomczak (Poland / ICES)
Chang Ik Zhang (Korea)

Invited Speakers:
Phil Levin (NNOAA NW Fisheries Science Center, USA)
Tetsuo Yanagi (Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Japan)

Many coastal and marine ecosystems, ranging from reefs to estuaries to pelagic systems, are exposed to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes with significant, long-term consequences that are often difficult to reverse. Changes in ocean climate, the abundance of key species, nutrients, and other factors drive these shifts, which affect ocean food webs, habitats, and ecosystem functions and people's livelihoods and well-being. Determining indicators of ecological changes due to multiple stressors and defining reference points for those indicators are key steps for managers to avoid ecological degradation and loss of keys goods and services. Setting ecological reference points in ecological systems presents a challenge to resource managers because (a) reference points are often difficult to determine due to the complexity of natural systems, including the presence of thresholds, tipping points, and non-linearities; (b) the paucity of theoretical modeling and empirical understanding needed to address these complexities, identify ecological thresholds and develop early warning indicators means that managers must make decisions based on high levels of uncertainty; and, (c) many institutional and governance structures do not allow managers the necessary flexibility to take up this information and react within relevant timeframes. This session will address these pressing challenges, and explore promising approaches to tackling them with the goal of catalyzing new research and management innovation. In particular, we invite presentations that (i) define the conceptual basis for reference points and management objectives surrounding reference points; (ii) use theoretical, modeling and observational approaches to identify potential reference points for indicators of changes in marine ecosystems; (iii) incorporate risk and sources of error (measurement, model, process) in such analyses; (iv) discuss how reference points may be used in helping to manage marine ecosystems, specifically in relation to the decision-making process related to evaluating and deciding on acceptable levels of risk. These discussions will be guided by the FUTURE science themes, with special attention to examining climate and anthropogenic drivers of ecological change, and identifying early warning indicators to enable forecasting to avoid crossing
ecological thresholds. The outcomes will contribute to the work of PICES Working Group 28 on Development of ecosystem indicators to characterize ecosystem responses to multiple stressors.