Please NOTE the content of the following Presentations cannot be used without authors' permissions.
To download and save these files on your local machine, right-click on the link and choose "Save Target As..."

Workshop 1. Addressing uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts in marine ecosystems

Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Labs, UK)
William Cheung (University of British Columbia, Canada)
Brian MacKenzie (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
Mark R. Payne (Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)

Invited Speaker:
William Cheung (University of British Columbia, Canada)

Accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies. However, the biological sciences, and their associated social and economic components, trail behind their physical counterparts in terms of the robustness, reliability and accuracy of their projections. In this workshop we propose to advance the current state of the art about how such projections can be made, and, to answer the question, “how confident are we of the robustness and usefulness of projections to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the context of ecosystem-based management of marine resources?”

We encourage contributions from the scientific community addressing uncertainties in future fisheries and seafood production under climate change, with productivity, abundance, food-web structure and distribution of marine populations, species and communities as potential case studies. We also welcome contributions from other disciplines, particularly the physical and social sciences, including economics, that describe how uncertainty is acknowledged and handled, and what makes robust projections/predictions in these fields.

The primary output from the workshop will be a focused review paper synthesising the lessons learned from the workshop. We will synthesise the most promising of these approaches in the context of uncertainty and risk assessment to both assess the quality of impact projections, and improve confidence in predictions. Finally, we will highlight gaps in existing knowledge and identify future research needs to improve the projections of climate change impacts in marine systems.

The workshop will address the various types of uncertainties common in modelling (see below). Plenary talks are invited to, in the first instance, introduce these aspects and the associated key questions to a general audience. They will then be followed by focused discussions in subgroups centred on each of the uncertainty elements. A final, brief, summary session will pull the threads back together.

William W.L. Cheung, Rebecca G. Asch, Thomas Frolicher, Miranda C. Jones, Malin L. Pinsky, Keith Rodgers, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Charles A. Stock and James R. Watson (Invited)
Projecting changes to living marine resources in an uncertain future
[waiting for permission]

Mark R. Payne
A statistical approach to model structural-uncertainty
[pdf, 0.5 Mb]

Tyler D. Eddy, Christopher E. Cornwall, Laurent Bopp, Tilla Roy, Beth Fulton and Heike K. Lotze
Effects of near-future climate change, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate, coastal ecosystem
[pdf, 1 Mb]

Philipp Neubauer and Olaf P. Jensen
Estimating variability and uncertainty in predatory relationships: A unified Bayesian framework for stable isotopes and fatty acid profiles
[pdf, 1 Mb]


Ana M. Queiros, Jose A. Fernandes, William W.L. Cheung, Manuel Barange and Stephen Widdicombe
Scaling up experimental climate change research: From individuals to the ecosystem
[pdf, 2 Mb]


Lauge B. Rasmussen and Mette S. Hansen
Ballast water management that adapts to climate changes and reduces harmful bio-invasions in marine eco-systems
[pdf, 1 Mb]

Manuel Barange, Christian Mullon and José A. Fernandes
Dealing with uncertainty when developing socio-economic scenarios for North Atlantic fisheries futures
[pdf, 2 Mb]
  • Symposium Scope
  • Symposium Structure
  • Scientific Program
  • Venue
  • Organizers
  • Schedule at Glance
  • Detailed Schedule
  • Book of Abstracts
  • Plenary and Invited Speakers
  • Registration
  • Registration Summary
  • Abstract Submission
  • Submitted Abstracts
  • Publication
  • Presentations
  • Financial Support
  • Poster Session
  • Transportation
  • Visa
  • Accommodation
  • Symposium Poster
  • Useful Information
  • Social Events
  • Contact
  • NEWS

    April 27, 2015
    Deadline for Manuscript submission has been changed from May 1 to May 31, 2015.

    Deadline for Abstract Submission, Eearly Registration, and Financial Support Application has been changed from Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, 2014

    Important Dates
  • May 31, 2015
    [extended from May 1]
    anuscript submission deadline
  • March 21–28, 2015
    Symposium and associated workshops
  • December 15, 2014
    Confirm your presentations and attendance
  • December 5, 2014
    Financial Support Grant notification
    - Declined

    December 15, 2014
    Financial Support Grant notification
    - Approved

  • May 12, 2014
    orkshop acceptance notification
  • April 14, 2014
    orkshop proposal submission deadline
  • November 30, 2014
    Abstract acceptance notification
  • November 3, 2014
    bstract submission deadline

    Financial support application deadline
    Early registration deadline
    mportant Dates
    © All content copyright PICES 2014. All Rights Reserved.  Web Site Design by PICES. Contact webmaster: Julia Yazvenko