PICES 2014 FUTURE OPEN SCIENCE MEETING

Please NOTE the content of the following Presentations cannot be used without authors' permissions.
To download and save these files on your local machine, right-click on the link and choose "Save Target As..."

Workshop 4. Ecosystem projection model inter-comparison and assessment of climate change impacts on global fish and fisheries

Convenors:
Anne B. Hollowed (USA)
Kirstin Holsman (USA)
Kerim Aydin (USA)

This workshop will assemble an international team of modeling experts in order to: (1) identify the optimal means of combining global earth system models (ESMs), high resolution regional modeling frameworks, and ecosystem models of varying complexity to provide robust assessments of climate-change impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries, and (2) coordinate international efforts to assess biological and societal impacts of climate-driven changes to future marine resources.

These experts will discuss the options for interfacing fisheries and ecosystem models with next generation of ESMs. Discussion topics will include: 1) identification of candidate ESMs for use in regional models based on a common set of the most recent IPCC projections, 2) quality and spatial resolution of phytoplankton and zooplankton output from ESMs; 3) identification of which marine ecosystems require dynamic downscaling to address regional ocean processes; and 4) strengths and weakness of simplifying assumptions for higher trophic level projection. Following the workshop, participants will conduct paired simulations using agreed upon climate scenarios and model structures to project climate-driven changes to marine ecosystems. Results will be presented and analyzed at the 3rd PICES/ICES/IOC Symposium on "Effects of climate change on the world's oceans" to be held in March 2015, in Santos, Brazil.