Co-Convenors: Steven Bograd (USA), Elizabeth Logerwell (USA), William Sydeman (USA) and Yutaka Watanuki (Japan)

Invited Speakers:
Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Institute of Technology, USA)
Michael Litzow (University of Tasmania, Australia)

A primary forecast from Global Climate Models (GCMs) is increasing variability in the physical and biological attributes of marine ecosystems (IPCC 2007). It is also well known from oceanography, marine ecology, and fisheries biology that variability is a key attribute of population stability/instability. Increasing spatial and temporal variance has also been hypothesized to be a precursor to long-term marine ecosystem change or "regime shifts". In this session, we invite papers that test hypotheses of increasing marine ecosystem variability relative to global climate change, be they of natural or anthropogenic origins. In particular, we invite studies that (1) address the theoretical basis for variance changes in North Pacific marine ecosystems using GCMs, paleo-ecological data, or experimental evidence, (2) directly test an hypothesis of "increasing ecosystem variability" using observational physical and/or biological data, and (3) consider how human social and economic systems and structures may be affected by increasing ecosystem variability, including the possible need for modifications in conservation and management strategies to deal with greater unpredictability and extremes in ecological conditions. A special volume for the primary literature will be investigated pending sufficient subscription to this session, or alternatively, a meta-analysis/review paper may be developed.