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Session 1. Communicating forecasts, uncertainty and consequences of ecosystem change

Co-Convenors: Sinjae Yoo (SB), Atsushi Tsuda (BIO), Elizabeth Logerwell (FIS), Chuanlin Huo (MEQ), Hiroya Sugisaki (MONITOR), Kyung-Il Chang (POC), Toru Suzuki (TCODE), Thomas Therriault (AICE), Hiroaki Saito (COVE), Phillip Mundy (SOFE) and Igor Shevchenko (Russia)

Invited Speakers:
Richard Beamish (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, retired)
Alida Bundy (Bedford Institute of Oceanography, DFO, Canada)
Brian Helmuth (Northeastern University, USA)
Mitsutaku Makino (Fisheries Research Agency, Japan)
Muyin Wang (University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA)

One goal of the PICES FUTURE program is to improve our capability to convey in a clear and effective manner how North Pacific marine environments may change due to natural and anthropogenic stressors, including climate change, and ultimately how societies will be affected by these changes. This new goal requires advancement in scientific communication which has largely been uncharted territory for PICES. To facilitate advancement in this new area, the Symposium will focus on four major issues pertaining to scientific communication: Products, Communicating Uncertainty, Decision Support Tools, and Human Dimensions. Products will include integration of outputs from field observations and models to provide comprehensive overviews of ecosystem status, trends and change for different audiences that include international experts, resource managers and the general public. Communicating Uncertainty will include the qualification or quantification of uncertainty associated with status, outlooks and forecasts of ecosystem changes. Decision Support Tools will include processing scientific outputs for management advice in an open and transparent way that will allow scientists to provide results that quantify the benefits and risks associated with different management strategies. Lastly, Human Dimensions will include the integration of social sciences in decision-making with respect to marine policy or management to capture the economic, cultural or societal values associated with sustainable ecosystems - this integration is the first step to communicating the social significance of predicted impacts from climate or ecosystem changes. In addition to these four focal issues, the Symposium will also discuss the scientific basis of FUTURE products such as the regional nature of marine ecosystem change, the causes of change, the challenges of attribution, and the future of change.

 
Monday, October 14
 
Ian Perry (Keynote)
Canada's changing Pacific marine ecosystems: Forecasts, uncertainties, potential consequences, and communication
(pdf, 3 Mb)
 
Richard J. Beamish (Invited)
Sustaining Marine Science
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
Brian Helmuth (Invited)
Communicating uncertainty in the era of climate change: When do 'the details' matter?
(pdf, 2 Mb)
 
Harold (Hal) P. Batchelder, Isabel Torres de Noronha, Oran Young, Suzanne Lawrence, Peter Fox, J. Luis Valdes, David Vousden, Ruben Zondervan, Robin Mahon, Leopoldo C. Gerhardinger, Heidi Schuttenberg and Marion Glaser
Future Ocean Alliance (FOA): Enhancing ocean sustainability challenges through knowledge-based governance and decision-making
(pdf, 2 Mb)
 
Mitsutaku Makino and Keith R. Criddle (Invited)
Why do we need Human Dimensions for the FUTURE Program?
(pdf, 2 Mb)
 
Alida Bundy (Invited)
Communication is a two-way process: Bringing science to the people and people to the science
(pdf, 2 Mb)
 
Edward J. Gregr, Kai M.A. Chan and Villy Christensen
When are models good enough? Assumptions and uncertainty in forecasts of ecosystem state and
service supply
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
Carrie A. Holt
Evaluating benchmarks of biological status for data-limited populations of Pacific salmon: Impacts
of climate-driven changes in productivity
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
William J. Sydeman, Marisol Garcia-Reyes, David S. Schoeman, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Bryan A. Black, Sarah Ann Thompson and Steven J. Bograd
Meta-analysis: A tool for communicating complexity to informed general audiences (S1-9094)
(will be posted on Dec. 1, 2013)
 
Muyin Wang and James E. Overland (Invited)
Arctic sea ice projections and uncertainties - An update from CMIP5 models
(pdf, 2.5 Mb)
 
SCIENCE BOARD BEST PRESENTATION AWARD
Hans-O. Portner
An integrated view of climate sensitivity in marine organisms: The need for proxies indicating
molecular to ecosystem-level changes
(pdf, 4 Mb)
 
Phillip R. Mundy, Will Koeppen, Stephanie N. Schmidt, Ellen Tyler, Eric J. Newland, Bryce Mecum, Kathrine Howard, Darcy Dugan and Brian Stone
Operational outlook and forecast in support of the management of a climate-driven fishery
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
Sue C.H. Grant and Bronwyn L. MacDonald
Fraser River Sockeye pre-season run size forecasts: Methods, indicators, and uncertainty
(pdf, 3 Mb)
 
Shin-ichi Ito, Masaki Seito, Tooru Yoshida, Kazuhiro Takeuchi, Shigeho Kakehi, Taku Wagawa, Yutaka Isoda and Hiroshi Kawamura
Water temperature forecasts to decrease megadeath of aquacultured scallops in Mutsu Bay, Japan
(pdf, 1.5 Mb)
 
Marc Trudel
Using ocean conditions to forecast salmon runs: Lessons learned from a decade of sampling juvenile salmon at sea
(pdf, 1 Mb)
 
 
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