PICES 2014 FUTURE OPEN SCIENCE MEETING

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Workshop 3. Climate change and ecosystem-based management of living marine resources: Appraising and advancing key modelling tools

Convenors:
Timothy E. Essington (USA)
Anne B. Hollowed (USA)
Myron A. Peck (Germany)

Invited Speakers:
J. Icarus Allen (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)
Elizabeth A. Fulton (CSIRO, Australia)

Climate variability and climate change interact with other pressures to affect the productivity and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Managers charged with the stewardship of sustainable living marine resources are challenged to deal with consequences of this variability, and better tools are needed to inform them. Process-oriented research on climate-driven changes in ecosystem dynamics is occurring at the same time that new ecosystem-related tactics to manage species interactions (time/area restrictions-marine spatial planning) and maximum retention allowances (bycatch restrictions) are being explored. These new management tactics, if applied broadly, suggest that international agreements regarding straddling and shared fish stocks and highly migratory species need to be re-visited.

This workshop is organized by the ICES-PICES Strategic Initiative (Section) on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to discuss state-of-the-art tools for: (1) calculating biological reference points under changing climate conditions that recognize that equilibrium states no longer apply; (2) assessing the relative ecological and economic costs and tradeoffs of different ecosystem-based management scenarios, and (3) estimating the vulnerability and stability of ecosystems (and their key components) required to make informed, ecosystem-based fisheries management.

The workshop is intended to provide a critical review of modelling tools available for fisheries management needs and to understand what advancements are required to address climate-driven changes in ecosystem dynamics. These goals will be facilitated by inviting fisheries managers as well as members of the ICES Working Group on Integrative, Physical-biological and Ecosystem Modelling (WGIPEM) and PICES modelling expert groups. All issues will be discussed in light of the upcoming release of IPCC's synthesis of impacts on marine ecosystems. A "Dahlem-type" format will require the convenors to pre-define workshop questions and direct participants to background reading material. After a morning of selected short presentations on management needs and modelling tools, break-out groups will discuss a set of pre-determined questions. A plenary discussion will synthesize group discussions leading to the next steps required to deliver specific outputs (one or more review papers to be published in a peer-reviewed journal).