P2
Presentations Forecasting impacts: From fish to markets
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Co-Convenors:
Manuel Barange (GLOBEC International Project Office)
Jacquelynne King (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Adolf Kellermann (International Council for the Exploration
of the Sea)
Ian Perry (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Climate change direct impacts on marine
populations will alter the provision of food from our oceans
to our markets. At the same time, the on-going process of
economic globalization will modify or exacerbate the vulnerability
of fish production systems to climate change at global, regional
and local level. Policy and management agencies will require
scientific advice on the potential impacts that climate change
(and its associated economic developments) will have on the
availability of fish populations to fisheries, markets and
consumers. This session will focus on (1) forecasting changes
in marine population dynamics as they relate to fisheries
(e.g., impacts on catchability
or maximum sustainable yield), to processing and market demands
(e.g., changes in size-at-age),
to market forces (e.g., changes
in price and trade) and to food security (e.g.,
collective vulnerability analysis); (2) quantifying the uncertainty
of these forecasts in risk assessment frameworks useful to
resource managers; and (3) exploring the interactivity between
the ecosystem and market dynamics.
Monday, April 26 (11:00-13:00)
11:00
Gorka Merino,
Manuel Barange, Christian Mullon, Robert Holmes, Julia L. Blanchard
and Lynda Rodwell
Global environmental change scenarios for the world’s small
pelagic fisheries and global fishmeal and oil markets (P2-6119)
(pdf,
1.4 Mb)
11:15
Gakushi Ishimura,
Samuel Herrick and Ussif Rashid Sumaila
Can there be stable, cooperative exploitation of a transboundary
fish stock under climate variability? A game analysis on the
Pacific sardine fishery in the California Current (P2-6290)
(pdf,
1.4 Mb)
11:30
Timothy Pickering,
Ben Ponia, Cathy Hair, Paul Southgate, Elvira S. Poloczanska,
Luc Della Patrona, Antoine Teitelbaum, C.V. Mohan and Michael
Phillips
Vulnerability of aquaculture to climate change in the Pacific
(P2-6398) (waiting for permission)
11:45
Alan Haynie
and Lisa Pfeiffer
Modeling fleet behavior in the Bering Sea pollock fishery under
climate change (P2-6359) Permission to post denied.Contact Author for presentation
12:00
Marie-Caroline
Badjeck and Tania Mendo
Aguilar Wosnitza
Scenarios for the future: Drivers of change in the Peruvian
fisheries sector (P2-6367)
(pdf,
1.1 Mb)
12:15
Ana Norman-López
and Sean Pascoe
The effect of climate change on fishing behaviour in the Eastern
Tuna and Billfish Fishery (P2-6071) (waiting for permission)
12:30
Ussif Rashid Sumaila,
William L. Cheung and Vicky W.Y. Lam
Impact of climate change on marine resources food security and
local economies in West African countries (P2-6230) (waiting for permission)
12:45
Maria A. Gasalla,
R. Pincinato and I. Belkin
Ocean proxies for seafood market variability in the South Brazil
Bight (P2-6386) (waiting for permission)