Workshop 2 and 3 - joined
(May 18, 1 day)
(details)
Linking Global Climate Model output to (a) trends in commercial species
productivity and (b) changes in broader biological communities in
the World's oceans Email
your questions to Workshop 2 and 3 Convenors
May
18(back
to top) Workshop
1. Zooplankton
and climate: response modes and linkages among regions, regimes, and
trophic levels
Convenors:David
L. Mackas (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans
Canada) and Hans Verheye
(Marine and Coastal Management, DEAT, South Africa)
Evidence for climate-correlated variability of various components
of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past two
decades. There is a growing recognition of the societal need to
learn how climate and ocean environmental and biotic responses
are linked, and the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes.
Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially
suitable for examining variability at interannual to decadal time
scales. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, their changes in
abundance can greatly enhance our collective ability to evaluate
the importance of and interaction between 'physical environment',
'food web', and 'fishery harvest' as causal mechanisms driving
ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses
of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade,
covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in
total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition,
changes in spatial distribution, and changes in phenology. But
because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared
to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of individual
local analyses is relatively low. Between-region and between-variable
comparisons are needed, and are the mandate of SCOR's Working
Group 125 on “Global comparison of zooplankton time series”.
This workshop will feature several presentations and discussion
by WG 125 members, but contributions from other investigators
are also welcome.
We expect ~15 WG 125 members, producing 8-10 papers on topics
such as “typical amplitudes and time scales of variability
in different regions”, “size spectrum”, “community
composition & zoogeographic shifts”, “phenologic
shifts”, “statistical methods and choices”,
“relation to climate indices”, “relation to
fishery time series”. We anticipate an additional 10-15
contributed papers from non-WG 125 authors.
May
18(back
to top)
Workshop 2 and 3 (joined).
Linking Global Climate Model output to (a) trends in commercial species
productivity and (b) changes in broader biological communities in
the world's oceans
Convenors:Part (a)Anne
Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries
Service, USA), Richard
Beamish (Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada),
Michael Schirripa
(Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service,
USA); Part (b)Thomas
A. Okey (Bamfield Marine Sciences Centre, Canada)
The goal of the combined workshop will be to facilitate a coordinated
international research effort to forecast climate change impacts
on the distribution and production of the world’s major
fisheries, and on the biological communities in which these fisheries
are embedded. The specific objectives of the workshop are: (1)
to review the activities of existing programs within each nation,
(2) to examine the evidence for climate impacts on production
of commercial fish species and other marine life, (3) to discuss
the feasibility of developing medium-term to long-term forecasts
of climate impacts, (4) to discuss possible responses of commercial
fisheries, human communities, and governments to climate-driven
changes in marine life, and (5) to identify common or standard
approaches to forecasting climate change impacts on commercial
species and marine communities and ecosystems.
Workshop attendees will identify climate scenarios for use in
forecasting and then discuss development of forecasting tools
for use in predicting climate impacts on commercial fish production
and broader marine ecosystems. The workshop will provide a forum
for discussion of four components needed to complete the forecasts
in a timely and coordinated fashion including: IPCC scenarios,
predictions of oceanographic impacts, modeling approaches, and
regional scenarios for natural resource use and enhancement. The
ecosystem component of the workshop will survey a wide variety
of approaches including vulnerability assessments for informing
location choices for ecosystem modeling efforts and management
prioritization, trophodynamic fishery ecosystem modeling (i.e.
Ecopath with Ecosim), climate envelope modeling, statistical approaches,
and three dimensional high-resolution biogeochemical ecosystem
modeling (i.e. CCC-NEMURO).
May
21(back
to top)
Workshop 4. Prospects
for multidisciplinary long-term ocean observations
Convenors:Ed Harrison (Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA/PMEL, USA), Richard
Lampitt (Southampton Oceanography Centre, UK) and Doug
Wallace (IFM-GEOMAR, Germany)
Motivated by the need to understand and measure the ocean’s
role for climate, the physical community has made great strides
towards implementation of global and regional ocean observing
systems both in-situ and space-borne. Despite the introduction,
three decades ago, of space-borne sensors for ocean colour, the
observing systems for ocean biological and chemical properties
are significantly less advanced. The motivation for such systems
is strong and growing, given the pressures of marine ecosystems
and the ocean’s significance for carbon sources and sinks.
The workshop will help to scope the prospects to allow similar
progress concerning observation of biogeochemical properties in
the oceans. The outcome of the workshop is intended to feed into
a white paper to be presented at an international symposium, OCEANOBS09
(http://www.oceanobs09.net/),
to be held in the fall of 2009. The issues to be addresses follow
directly from the principles and practices of GEOSS (Global Earth
Observation System of Systems). The 10 year Implementation Plan
(adopted February 16, 2005) clearly states that GEOSS “...builds
on and adds value to existing Earth observation systems by coordinating
their efforts, addressing critical gaps, supporting their interoperability,
sharing information, reaching a common understanding of user requirements
and improving delivery of information to users.” GEO
(Group on Earth Observations) includes 68 member countries, the
European Commission, and 46 participating organizations working
together to establish GEOSS. With these principles and needs in
mind, we invite interest groups, existing observing networks,
and individuals to exchange and share their visions for a global
ocean observing system that addresses key biogeochemical properties
of the marine realm.
Workshop
5. Cod and future climate
change (CANCELLED)
May
18(back
to top)
Workshop 6. Storm surges and flooding
in the Baltic Sea
Convenors:Aleksander Toompuu (Tallinn
University of Technology, Estonia), Evgueni
Kulikov (Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy
of Sciences, Russia) and Josef
Cherniawsky (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans
Canada)
The Baltic Sea water levels vary over a wide range of temporal
and spatial scales. The prevailing winds and river runoff produce
a mean sea-surface slope, while intense storms cause flooding in
the eastern Baltic. This strong variability and flooding motivate
investigations of the physical processes and of quantitative methods
for more accurate predictions of extreme sea-level events in the
Baltic Sea.
The strongest sea-level oscillations in the Baltic Sea and the
most severe floods occur in the Eastern Gulf of Finland (EGF), as
storm winds over the Baltic Sea drive large volumes of water into
the shallow Neva Bay at the head of the Gulf. A major objective
of the ongoing research is development of a reliable system for
prediction of sea-level variations and storm surges along the EGF
coast. The purpose of this workshop is to facilitate the exchange
of information and ideas pertaining to this research, in particular
on modelling of the effects of climate change and variability on
water levels, storm surges and flooding in the Baltic Sea.